Mykhailo Pyrtko on India’s Potential to Become a Driver of the Global Energy Transition in 2026–2035

 In the years 2026–2035, the world will enter a period of the most massive transformation of energy markets in modern history. Countries are revising energy production and consumption models, investing in decarbonization, and forming new supply chains for critical materials. Against this backdrop, the question is increasingly being raised: can India move beyond its status as a fast-growing economy to become one of the main drivers of the global energy transition?

India is already one of the world’s most dynamic economies, and its energy needs are growing at a rapid pace. Its demographic structure, urbanization, scale of industrialization, and ambitious state goals in renewable energy and the hydrogen economy create the prerequisites for the country to play a role in the coming decade comparable to that played by China during the previous investment cycle.

At the same time, India faces a complex set of challenges: dependence on coal, uneven infrastructure development, the need for massive capital investment, and competition for critical resources.

Economic Dynamics 2026–2035: The Foundation for Energy Leadership

India enters the next decade with an economy demonstrating some of the highest growth rates in the world. Regular forecasts from leading financial institutions agree on one thing: the country will maintain stable development rates and could rise to third place globally by GDP in the first half of the 2030s. Such dynamics form the prerequisites for a deep transformation of the energy sector.

Accelerated urbanization is changing the structure of energy consumption: cities generate demand for electromobility, public transport systems, digital infrastructure, and building cooling—one of the key factors in increasing grid load. In parallel, the expansion of the industrial base continues, making energy stability a critical condition for investment.

State programs also play the role of a catalyst. India is actively modernizing grid infrastructure, stimulating the localization of renewable energy equipment production, and supporting investors through long-term policies in green technologies. These steps form the economic foundation necessary for a large-scale transition to a low-carbon model in the next decade.

The main question is whether the country can convert this economic momentum into energy leadership—and whether these structural changes will be enough to compensate for the dependence on traditional energy sources, which remains substantial for India.

Renewable Energy: Are Indian Ambitions Sufficient?

India is already among the group of the largest renewable energy producers in the world, yet the scale of its domestic demand dictates the need for an even more dynamic increase in capacity. The government declares a course for the rapid expansion of solar and wind generation, betting on large infrastructure projects, grid development, and the formation of local production chains.

Solar energy remains the key segment. The country has one of the highest solar insolation potentials in the world, allowing for the scaling of both ground-mounted and rooftop projects. Wind resources are also being utilized more actively—especially in coastal states where the government is launching a program to develop offshore wind zones.

A separate focus is the National Green Hydrogen Mission, aimed at forming a powerful hydrogen industry by the 2030s. India aims not only to meet its own needs but also to establish itself as a potential exporter of green hydrogen and derivative products.

Despite the ambition, implementation rates still lag behind what is necessary. The speed of project approval, access to land, grid modernization, and limited energy storage capabilities remain constraining factors. At the same time, global investors demonstrate sustained interest in the market, confirming that India’s potential in renewable energy significantly exceeds its currently realized capabilities.

The key issue will be the country's ability not just to increase installed capacity, but to ensure its real integration into the energy system—under conditions of stability, predictability, and economic feasibility.

Technology and Manufacturing: From Solar Panels to Batteries

India is consistently strengthening its position in the global supply chains of the energy transformation. The localization policy under the Make in India initiative is aimed at ensuring the country does not merely import technologies but forms its own industrial base in key segments—solar panels, wind power plant equipment, energy storage systems, and electromobility.

The solar industry is demonstrating particularly rapid growth. India is actively increasing the production of silicon wafers, modules, and inverters, reducing dependence on imports. The bet is on the full production cycle to prospectively export not just finished modules, but industrial solutions for large projects.

The battery and energy storage segment is becoming a strategic priority. The country is creating cluster projects for battery production, focusing on combining domestic market needs—electric transport, household systems, grid stabilization—with potential exports to the Asian and African regions. The development of a national standard for charging infrastructure also supports the formation of an electromobility ecosystem.

The wind industry, while trailing the solar sector in pace, is gradually expanding the production of turbines, blades, and components. Individual states are considering the creation of industrial zones for offshore wind projects.

The strength of this manufacturing shift lies in the fact that it forms the technological foundation for the future energy transition. The more India controls its own value creation chains, the more resiliently it can scale projects and reduce risks associated with global imbalances in the equipment market.

Geopolitical Dimension: How India Can Influence the Global Order

India enters the 2026–2035 decade as a state gradually converting economic weight into political and energy influence. Its strategy is based on a multi-vector approach: balanced relations with the West, active participation in Global South coalitions, and the expansion of its own diplomacy in energy and technology.

In G20 and BRICS formats, India promotes the idea of fairer access to green project financing, highlighting the needs of developing countries. This allows it to act as a bridge between two political blocs—the technologically advanced West and economies facing investment deficits but possessing high potential for RES scaling.

In the Indo-Pacific region, the country is ramping up energy partnerships, including cooperation in hydrogen economy sectors, infrastructure, and critical maritime routes. Such initiatives are strategic: control of logistics routes and the capacity to ensure stable supplies of energy technologies make India an important player for the states of Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

In parallel, a new format of "green" bilateral agreements is forming. India is concluding partnerships with the US, Japan, the EU, and Australia, concentrating on technology exchange, hydrogen corridor development, and the diversification of critical supply chains. This allows the country to strengthen its position in the global energy balance without the need to rigidly align with a single geopolitical center.

The growth of India’s international role is also linked to its ability to act as a guaranteed sales market and a source of manufacturing potential. If, in the 2010s–2020s, China managed to build geopolitical influence through dominance in solar panel and battery production, India aims to create its own version of such a model—more diversified and politically flexible.

Main Barriers: What Could Stop the Indian Breakthrough

Despite ambitions and significant economic potential, India’s path to the role of a global energy transition driver remains uneven. The main challenges are concentrated in three areas: structural dependence on traditional energy, infrastructure limitations, and institutional complexity.

The most serious factor is the scale of coal usage. India still covers a significant portion, about 60%, of its energy needs through coal-fired power plants, and even with active RES development, demand for this fuel will continue to grow for some time. The transition from coal to low-carbon technologies will require not only investments but also political decisions that take into account social consequences for millions of workers in the energy sector.

The second barrier is the insufficient development of grids and energy storage systems. Solar and wind projects are scaling quickly, but transmission and balancing infrastructure is not keeping up. This creates a risk of underutilizing installed capacities and complicates the integration of new projects in critical states.

Institutional limitations also play a significant role. The regulatory system sometimes lacks consistency between the federal government and states, affecting project implementation rates, land access, grid connection, and permitting. Some foreign investors also note administrative complexity and the unpredictability of certain procedures.

An additional risk is competition for critical resources—copper, nickel, lithium—without which scaling technologies is impossible. India is currently at the initial stage of forming its own supply chains and depends on external partners, making it vulnerable to global market fluctuations.

The complexity of these challenges does not negate India’s potential, but it defines the threshold across which the country will either make a leap in 2026–2035 or remain a large, but not decisive, participant in the global transition.

Will India Really Become a Driver of the Global Transition in 2026–2035?

India’s potential in the energy transition sphere is one of the most massive in the world. A growing economy, demographic dynamics, and a strategic course toward production localization create conditions for the country to play an increasingly large role in shaping the new energy architecture. However, the degree of this influence will depend on how quickly and systemically India can overcome its own internal limitations.

• In the most optimistic scenario, the country will become one of the key centers for solar energy development, the hydrogen economy, and battery production. A strong domestic base will enable the formation of export-oriented value chains, allowing India to influence pricing, technological standards, and the structure of global supplies in the 2030s.

• The base scenario envisions a gradual but uneven strengthening of positions. Growth in production capacities and RES projects will scale, but infrastructural and institutional factors will constrain the maximum effect. In this case, India will become an important element of the global transition but will not define its pace.

• The conservative scenario is possible in the event of delays in grid modernization, a slowdown in reforms, or a lack of investment. Under such conditions, the country will remain one of the largest energy consumption markets, but its influence on the technological and investment agenda will be limited.

For Europe and Ukraine, the Indian factor will be of strategic importance—as a source of technological cooperation, new markets, and an element of diversification for energy equipment supplies. India’s successful development could intensify competition in the global green technology market, while simultaneously creating opportunities for partnerships in hydrogen projects, battery production, and digital solutions for energy systems.

The degree to which this potential is realized will determine whether India becomes a new driver of the global energy transition—or if its role remains locally important, but not system-forming at the global level.

Expert Conclusions

In 2026–2035, India has a real chance to strengthen its role in the global energy transition, but its influence will depend on the practical implementation of state policies, not the scale of declared ambitions. The country is already demonstrating progress in developing renewable energy, localizing production, and technological solutions; however, key challenges—coal dependence, infrastructure limitations, and institutional complexity—remain significant.

India can become an important participant in the global transition if it maintains the pace of reforms and can increase the efficiency of implementing large energy projects. Its role in world energetics will be determined not by declarations, but by the ability to convert economic potential into a stable technological and manufacturing base.

In the coming decade, the country is likely to become one of the centers of growth in green technologies, but its key influence on global transition rates will depend on how quickly it can modernize its own energy infrastructure and resolve resource availability issues.